Empty stadium, but I never run out of fans: Analysis of Vietnam-Thailand derby and the tactical blind spot

I sat in a small beer shop in Shenzhen, the cold beer in hand, watching the Vietnam-Thailand derby live on the big screen. My friends cheered loudly, saying Vietnam would win easily, that the home team had the advantage of home ground, motivation from fans and historical rivalry. But I pointed to the data: Thailand only conceded 0.9 goals per match in knockout stages, while Vietnam generated 1.8 expected goals but frequently missed. I predicted the match would end 1-1, Thailand would not lose. And exactly as I predicted, the match ended with a 1-1 draw. My beer was still not empty, the odds had not been bet, but I had seen the truth in reverse. This article is not to show off knowledge, but to draw you into the dialogue. Let's go deep into the analysis, from data to stories, so you can verify it yourself.